Feliz Halladay

Alright, the trade happened.  There is no point in wasting any time complaining about whatever it was Amaro did or was going to do anymore.  It happened, it cannot be changed, it is what it is.

So, first.

Roy Halladay is a fucking Phillie until at least 2013.

Ruben Amaro, Jr. had a huge attraction to Roy Halladay and who could blame him.  Apparently, we’ve now learned that Roy Halladay, and his 9-year old son, wanted to see Halladay in a Phillies uniform.  Apparently, his wife wanted this such trade to happen in July.  I will not dive heavily into why this trade did not happen last summer, but it was largely due to a greater asking price from Toronto’s former GM.  Also, it was unclear on whether or not Halladay placed Philadelphia at the top of his list in July.  It was also unclear on whether or not Halladay was willing to sign an extension.

Whatever the ultimate reason was, he’s here now and the Phillies have the best pitcher of this decade.  In fact, isn’t it great to say that the best pitcher in the league wants to come here and wants to wear red pinstripes.  The mood of the league has changed.  Philadelphia is now an enticing destination.

What does Halladay offer?

Halladay + his extension gives the Phillies a legit ace for the next 4-5 years to come.  You could even expect Halladay’s numbers to improve when he’s pitching to opposing pitchers instead of designated hitters.

For the people who do not follow baseball:

Halladay is the ace.  Of all the pitchers in Major League Baseball, Roy Halladay is the pitcher that probably just about every GM would choose.  Yes, over the beloved Cliff Lee.  As good as Lee was, Halladay is better.

Halladay also gives the rotation more balance.  Having a right-handed top of the rotation starter is huge.  Halladay, followed by Hamels has more of an effect than Lee followed by Hamels because it is lefty after lefty and it allows an opposing manager to run out a similar lineup in each game of a series.

Sure, you notice I keep talking about the postseason.  Well, Halladay for a full year should all but guarantee it.  The bullpen was so fatigued at the end of 2009 because the team lacked a go-to guy in the rotation until July.

A full year of Halladay and a healthier/more effective Hamels should give opposing teams fear both in the regular season and postseason.  Say what you want about Hamels (hey I’ve called him a wimp), but he has shown that he can be that go-to guy and you know he has legit stuff.  Plus, he’s only 25? I can’t believe so many people wanted to give up on him.  Rough.  He’ll rebound.  I don’t know how anyone can expect him not to.

Cliff Lee really is gone for new “prospects.”

It happened, and I’m not so sure why.  I understand that they made the move to replenish the system (and get closer to budget), but couldn’t they obtain something better in return?  I mean how is Saunders or Triunfel not part of this deal?  Just because the Phillies find a way to possibly rape Cleveland for Lee, why did the Phillies have to get raped for their return?  Anyway, only time will tell.

The Phillies scouts have been pretty good at evaluating talent over the last ten years, which allowed the Phillies to make not one, but two moves for former Cy Youngs.  So, for the time being, we might as well give them our blind faith.  Hopefully Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez all turn into stars.  Hopefully the guys we just shipped out turn into duds.  The Kyle Drabek loss will likely sting the most because the Phillies really lack that future top end of the rotation starter in the system.

Sebastian Valle and top prospect (before the trade) Dominic Brown should keep us easy with the losses of Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud.

The Phillies will likely be able to replenish the system after  the 2010 season.  I think it is safe to assume that Jayson Werth and Joe Blanton will be wearing a different uniforms and we will receive compensation if they are offered arbitration.

Payroll Implications

It will be interesting to see what happens after 2010.  I’ve already mentioned that Blanton and Werth will likely be gone because the Phillies will have nearly $100 million already guaranteed for only 10 players.  That means the Phillies will have to fill out the rest of the roster through arbitration, the system, and free agency with about $40-$60 million.

After that, only Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, and Placido Polanco are guaranteed contracts for 2012.  As you can see, regardless of the return, the Phillies likely did move Cliff Lee for the future than one last push for a title this year.  You don’t want futility for a several years again, right?  Whether or not the Phillies traded with the correct team and received the correct return remains to be seen.  It is hard to evaluate this trade now.

Conclusion

However it happened, Ruben Amaro, Jr. finally got his man in Roy Halladay.  Absolutely no one should be upset with acquiring Halladay over Cliff Lee (since it seems like that is how it had to be.)  Whether or not you felt that Cliff Lee would have re-signed, he would have likely wanted more money, if not more years.  We’ve seen a number of long-term deals go sour for acquired pitchers.  Three-to-four year deals should be the standard for pitchers, and the Phillies got the best pitcher in the business to agree to a discounted deal.  Yes, Cliff Lee will be paid at least $20 million next year.

The Phillies are still the favorite to win the division.  The Mets will not be better than they were in 2007 and the Phillies are already far better than their 2007 roster.  The Braves and Marlins will likely improve, but no one in the division has as dominant of a lineup that the Phillies have and I’d say only the Braves have a better full rotation, if it stays in tact.

The Phillies are still the favorite to win the National League.  When you’ve made the World Series the last two years and you then go and acquire Roy Halladay, how could you not be?  This could easily be the season that the Phillies surpass the century mark for wins in the regular season.

This could easily be the year the Phillies win their 2nd World Series in three years.

The trade happened.  We now have to deal with it and when you acquire Roy Halladay in what could be the companion to a potential bad move, it makes things a lot easier to cope with.

Thoughts: Polanco, Halladay, Schneider, Smoltz, etc.

Placido Polanco – 3 years, $18 MM

So, we replaced an aging 3rd baseman with little power with an aging 2nd baseman with little power.  BUT POLANCO DOESN’T STRIKE OUT A WHOLE LOT!  Anyway, I’m not a big fan of giving Placido Polanco a 3-year deal at $6MM per, especially when the younger, more agile, real 3B, Chone Figgins signed for 4 years at $9MM per.  The Polanco acquisition could be a slight upgrade over Pedro Feliz, but I’m not quite sure what we’re going to see.

First, Polanco hasn’t played third base since 2005.  Even in that season, he played only 5 starts.  You really don’t know what you’re going to get.  Polanco offered great range at second base this season and was worthy of his gold glove, but it is hard to say that those accolades will carry over to third.  Alex Rodriguez, considered one of the best short stops ever, has been an awful third baseman.  It’s clearly based more on reaction time, rather than reading angles and setting yourself in the proper position.

Second, Polanco was a below average hitter last season.  He was only slightly above average in 2008.  His offensive numbers are trending down folks.  Yes his career average is over .300, but his OPS+ is at 98.  What does that mean?  It means he’s mostly a singles hitter.  75% of his hits last season were singles.  A comparable player is likely Shane Victorino in terms of hitting.  However, even Victorino hit for singles 65% of the time.

Third, signing Polanco to bat second is a dumb idea.  Shane Victorino’s offensive numbers are trending upwards.  You’d rather he be at the top of your lineup than the bottom.  I really hope Polanco is batting 7th for this team, which isn’t necessarily a terrible idea.  Polanco will put the ball in play more often than Feliz did.  The big question though is whether him putting the ball in play for singles a lot actually helps the Phillies.  Will it result in a lot of double plays too?  2 outs > 1 out.  2 outs > 1 K.

Going cheap may be a pre-cursor for the next discussion.

Roy Halladay: I’m on the fence.

I don’t know what I want.  I know adding Halladay would give the Phillies one of the best top of the rotations ever in the game.  I also know that trading for Halladay will likely cost a pricey extension, prospects, possibly current roster players, and other financial required transactions.

If the Phillies acquire Halladay, it is safe to assume that Joe Blanton will no longer be with the Phillies.  I think you could also assume that either Werth or Victorino would be the next player moved for the Phillies to fit the team under their budget.  All of this could be fixed if we sold the team to God (Comcast).

I assume Halladay would likely want a big extension in terms of years and for a guy that has pitched so often in his career, I’m not so sure how safe a team feels about a deal longer than three years.  We know the Phillies hate giving deals longer than three years.  They’ve done that with one guy recently and that was Chase Utley.

I’m not going to sit here and continually post rumors about Halladay.  I’ll touch this subject again if it finally happens.

Brian Schneider 2-year deal.

He should be a decent backup and he hits well in this park.  If something happens to Ruiz and Schneider becomes the starter, then well, we may be fucked.  He’s not a starter or long-term solution.

John Smoltz

I am definitely all four signing John Smoltz to come out of the back of the bullpen.  There isn’t much out there left and because of Smoltz’s age and uncertainty, they could give him a cheap deal, with incentives.

Mark DeRosa: Full-time 3B? Come on now.

Okay, well, I wrote something here and it deleted it all? Cool!

Anyway, I guess I’ll write it again.

DO NOT SIGN MARK DEROSA!

He is a terrible fielder and his sketchy, inconsistent offense would be no real upgrade over Feliz.  DeRosa is also coming off wrist surgery that could plague him next year.  Signing an old player to replace another one really does nothing to improve the lineup, especially when it dramatically adds more strike-outs to it.

I really do not care about his desire to play closer to home (the Mets and Yankees are closer to Passaic).  I do not care about the Phillies being his favorite.  We’re in the business to win games, not to make dreams come true.  DeRosa has no business being a starting third baseman for the Phillies.  If he is brought in to be the first guy off the bench, then I am all for it.

The Phillies shopping list for 3B should be this: Figgins, Beltre, Feliz.  Ends there.

Todd Zolecki says the Phillies are still interested in Beltre and Polanco, I’ll take Beltre.

I wrote more, but I am ill and for whatever reason, my previous post was deleted.

Scott Eyre – Not coming back?

Apparently, Scott Eyre will not necessarily be back with the Phillies.

Scott Eyre was an important part of the late-inning mix last season, and he wants to either retire or return to the Phils for one more year. He had minor elbow surgery after the World Series, and we knew that the team was waiting on that to decide whether they were interested in retaining the lefty.  Yesterday, Amaro added money as a factor.

“We think the surgery went well,” Amaro said. “We’re deciding whether the cost of bringing him back will be prohibitive. He may have priced himself out of our range.”

Source: Andy Martino

It’s interesting to see how a player can price himself out of their range when the Phillies have no competition or whatever.  Either he wants to pitch or he doesn’t.  The Phillies shouldn’t sit there and try to buy him out of retirement.

Mobile Rumors: Eyre, Polanco, Figgins

Here is a quick, quick update on my short teaching break.

Scott Eyre: Phillies or retirement.

Placido Polanco: Rumored to be favorite for 3B. Dumb in my opinion. Hasn’t played there in forever.

Chone Figgins: 4th on their 3B list. $ and years a problem.

Phillies sent out 6 offers apparently

Rumors: Rodney, Figgins, DeRosa

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Phillies are showing preliminary interest in relief pitcher Fernando Rodney.  Rodney is a Type-B free agent, so he would not cost the Phillies a draft pick.

Rodney is another fastball/change-up type pitcher and at times he struggles with his command (4.9 BB/9).  Rodney saved 37 of 38 games last year, albeit with scares (4.40 ERA), and he would offer some much needed depth to the back end of the bullpen.  Also, he would provide a back-up plan to Brad Lidge if he does not return to form.  Rodney will likely have a lot of suitors, so his price may be out of the Phillies’ range.

Jon Heyman again reports that the Phillies are expected to pursue Chone Figgins hard.

Angels GM Tony Reagins said they have been in talks for two months to try to keep Figgins as their third baseman and Reagins is “hopeful” that something can get done, but the competition appears significant, especially from the Phillies. While Phillies GM Ruben Amaro doesn’t absolutely rule out a return for Feliz at a lesser price, and Mark DeRosa, Placido Polanco and Adrian Beltre are among other third-base options, Amaro said, “That was the only spot where we felt we could make a change and do something different. Obviously, Chone is an outstanding athlete and you have to assume he has a lot of suitors. But we’re keeping our eyes and ears open.”

As I mentioned yesterday, adding Figgins would drastically alter the lineup for the better and even add to their great defense.  My only con to signing Figgins is what does it do for future contracts regarding players on this team.  A number of players considered parts of the Phillies core will be free agents after 2010 and 2011.  Does meeting the 5 year, $50 million demand of Figgins effect future deals?  Cliff Lee? While we as fans expect the Phillies the make the World Series every year, can the team really bank on that added revenue?  You know, I think we could all use a Phillies Network in our life.

Heyman also tweeted that 8 teams inquired about Mark DeRosa and the Phillies were one of them.

The only way I’d accept Mark DeRosa becoming the Phillies starting third baseman is if they use that money to do two of three things: lock up Cliff Lee, add another starter, and/or find bullpen help.  If these do not happen, signing Mark DeRosa to be the starting third baseman would be terrible.

 

Rollins and Victorino win Gold Gloves…Deserved?

The Gold Gloves were announced today and both Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino retained theirs.  Rollins won his third straight and Victorino won his second.  Were they deserved?  Let’s dive into that.

First, let’s look at Jimmy Rollins.  Rollins was, without a doubt, the best short stop in baseball last season.  However, his defense regressed this season.  I know what you’re thinking, his error-less streak, but that streak does not take away from the fact that his range prevented less runs than normal for him this season.

To compare fielders around the league, there are two sabermetrics that baseball analysts use: UZR – Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average.  UZR/150 - UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games.  What does this mean?  A player’s UZR represents the number of runs that their range prevented compared to the average fielder at that position.  Source: Fangraphs

In 2008, Jimmy Rollins had a UZR/150 of 15.0, which means he prevented 15 more runs more than the average short stop over a 150 game span.  His defense prevented a run about every 10 games.  However, things changed dramatically in 2009.  This year, Rollins’ range prevented only 2.9 runs over a 150 game span.  Just one run prevented about every 50 games.   These stats suggest that Rollins was still an above average short stop and probably won based on the last two seasons, but stats argue that his defense prevented the most runs from happening, even with the least amount of errors.

Next, let’s look at Shane Victorino his defense took a turn for the worse.  In 2008, Victorino had a UZR/150 of 6.9 for all outfielders and 7.8 for centerfield.  Should he have won, probably not, but he made a number of great plays last year and he has a very strong arm.  This year, Victorino was below average with a UZR/150 of -4.2 for outfield.  If you religiously watched the Phillies this year, you should have notice that Victorino did make less plays than he did in the past.  Was he playing through an injury? Who knows, but for some reason, Victorino’s range plummeted terribly.  I don’t think there is any real argument that could have been made for Shane Victorino.

Who was robbed this year? Chase Utley.  Chase Utley lead all MLB second basemen with a UZR/150 of 11.3.  Who did he lose to? He lost to Orlando Hudson and his astounding -3.7 UZR/150.  Nice fail job, voters.

For a look at the UZR ratings for all of the Phillies fielders, click after the jump.  There are no UZR ratings for a catcher or pitcher.

Rumors: Figgins, Halladay, Beltre, DeRosa, Lee

You have to love the media and their Roy Halladay rumors again.   However, Ken Rosenthal reported earlier that the Phillies are STRONGLY DOWNPLAYING any real interest in Roy Halladay.  Their focus is third base, the bullpen, and the bench.  Makes the most sense.  Jim Salisbury stated that the Phillies are still in the running for Doc.

Don’t count on it people.  I’d assume the Phillies would likely have to give up a player currently on the 25-man roster to make the move.  Starting pitching is 4th on their list.  They already have 5 starters under contract for next season and a few prospects expected to get a chance to make the team in Spring Training.

Earlier tonight on Twitter, Jon Heyman posted that the Phillies are seriously considering making an offer to Chone Figgins.

While I think Figgins will likely be overpaid at this stage in his career (likely on the downside), for the next few years (the Phillies window) he will offer the lineup a legitimate lead-off man who cares more about getting on base instead of the outfield bleachers.  If the Phillies were to sign Figgins, he would be both a defensive and offensive upgrade over Pedro Feliz.  The move would also allow the Phillies to move Rollins to the 2 hole and Victorino to the 7 spot, giving him the ability to use his speed more on the base path.  In reality, Victorino should remain in the 2 spot and Rollins should move to 7th, but we all know that would not happen.  Because Figgins is a type-A free agent, he’d cost the Phillies a pick if offered arbitration by the Angels.

Heyman also reported that the Phillies are still interested in bringing back Pedro Feliz at a cheaper price than his $5.5 million option.

While the possibility is there, Ruben Amaro, Jr. has already mentioned a few times that he sees the Phillies adding a free agent third baseman.  Well technically, Feliz is a free agent now, but I’d assume the Phillies go a different route.  This is the one spot where they can improve the lineup and both Beltre and Figgins are better defensively.

In the same article, Heyman mentions seeing the Phillies trying to lock up Cliff Lee long-term.  He assumes that the Phillies will likely not pursue a deal more than $100 million total.

Part of me wants to lock up Lee as soon as possible, but I also understand why the Phillies would be tentative.  Lee is an entire season away from free agency and I’m sure they’d want to see how his body and arm react to such a long workload in 2009.  Lee has mentioned that he never really gets sore, so it’ll be interesting.  However, with the titles of 2008 Cy Young Award winner and postseason ace, Lee’s price is probably at its highest peak.  I’d assume Lee would love to negotiate now more than later.

Bill Conlin sees the Phillies re-signing Pedro Feliz as the new third baseman and Mark DeRosa as the new utility fielder of the bench.

I’m all against signing DeRosa to be the Phillies starting third baseman because his defense is not good enough to start full-time, but he’d offer a great bat off the bench and he can play 2B, SS, and 3B.  Let’s face it folks.  Rollins and Utley are out there for too many games and they more random rest days.  They looked awfully tired at times in September and during parts of the postseason.

The Phillies could probably sign both Beltre and DeRosa for Figgins’ price.  While Beltre doesn’t provide a new lead-off man, he offers great defense and more offensive potential than Feliz.  Beltre was a 1.017 the year before he signed with Seattle and had to play in Safeco.  Beltre had close to a .800 OPS away from Safeco.

Top 10 2010 Prospects

Baseball America released the Phillies Top 10 Prospects.

1.	Domonic Brown, of
2.	Kyle Drabek, rhp
3.	Michael Taylor, of
4.	Travis D’Arnaud, c
5.	Trevor May, rhp
6.	Anthony Gose, of
7.	Sebastian Valle, c
8.	Jarred Cosart, rhp
9.	Antonio Bastardo, lhp
10.	Domingo Santana, of

The top 3 shouldn’t surprise you after we unloaded 4 prospects for Cliff Lee, but the new crop of prospects behind them is slowly helping to continue the Phillies success of a farm system.  D’Arnaud would likely be the replacement for Carlos Ruiz down the road.  I’m really looking for him to break out next season and some scouts actually felt he had a higher ceiling than Lou Marson.

Trevor May is a power arm, similar to Jason Knapp, who was traded for Cliff Lee.  May’s fastball tops out in the mid 90s and he has a 12-6 hammer curve to compliment it.  May could see himself in the back-end of the rotation down the road or in late-inning relief because of his strikeout ability.

Anthony Gose is a flat out speedster.  He stole 76 bases this season, but he was thrown out 20 times.  However, he really to need improve his hitting approach if he ever wants to be starter in the bigs.  His minor league career OPS is below .700.

Valle, Cosart, and Santana are a little to predict their future.  Baseball America even sees Valle switching positions to third and starting for the Phillies in 2013.  Cosart is another power arm similar to May.  Lastly, Santana hit for a .897 in the Gulf Coast League last season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does at a higher level.

Antonio Bastardo is an interesting name as he is now listed at 9th, down from last year.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bastardo pitching in the bullpen next season for the Phillies.  If Bastardo would like to remain a starter, he really needs to work on his control to cut down on his pitch counts.

You think someone is missing from the list? How about 16-game winner, Joe Savery.  Savery likes to pitch to contact and generally these types of guys will never make any top prospect list, but they always find their way into the majors.  Also, it speaks volume about the depth in the Phillies farm system.  Both the 2007 and 2008 first round picks are not in this list: Savery and Hewitt.

Phillies Decline Feliz’s Option

Todd Zolecki has tweeted that the Phillies have declined Pedro Feliz’s $5.5 million option, and will pay him a $500,000 buyout.

In his two seasons with the Phillies, Feliz hit .259 with 26 home runs, and 140 RBIs.  In 2009, he had a career high in .308 OBP, which is not exactly an astounding number.  His slugging percentage has been on a steady decline since 2006 and the Phillies lineup saw a black hole whenever he batted during the postseason.

Pedro Feliz however was likable player this season with superb defense and a knack for coming through in the “clutch” during the regular season.  Feliz hit .336 with RISP this year with 82 RBIs on the season.  Also, it was Pedro Feliz who knocked in the go-ahead run in game 5 of the World Series last year.  He also hit a game-tying home run in game 4 of this year’s World Series.

The move doesn’t necessarily mean Feliz will not return because the Phillies could likely bring him back at a cheaper price.  Feliz did not have a huge market for himself before the 2008 season when the Phillies signed him.

I’d expect the Phillies to look at Adrian Beltre who’s price likely dropped dramatically after a poor, injury-riddled 2009 campaign.  Beltre will only turn 31 in April compared to Feliz who will be 35.  Beltre is also a superb defender and by no means would he be a defensive downgrade.

The Phillies could also consider Chone Figgins, but I have a feeling that he’ll be out of the Phillies price range.